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Air Asia 8501. When will we learn?

eklendi
 
It is becoming clear that the probable fate of Air Asia 8501 is that it is at the bottom of the ocean after losing controllability at high altitude in heavy thunderstorm activity. Fair enough, except none of those things should have made the least difference to a safe landing. Pilots encounter thunderstorms every day worldwide. It’s a routine part of the job. So why did this one make a difference? (www.americanthinker.com) Daha Fazlası...

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joelwiley
joel wiley 2
It seems to me the emphasis on autopilot use comes from the accounting office's desire to reduce fuel costs. In my experience, cruise control improves my gas mileage, but not my ability to handle the unexpected. Does the savings of fuel overall pencil out against the cost of an occasional aircraft loss due to atrophied pilot skills?
avihais
Martin Haisman 1
No one will know the exact cause until the flight recorders are analysed. There are indicators as to the cause but never assume the cause and outcome. May be one or more of human factors, training, maintenance, fatigue (pilot and metal), meteorology, faulty or sub standard parts, systems failures etc. so the answer is:

Wait.

[This poster has been suspended.]

preacher1
preacher1 1
Amongst all this talk of a stall, it must be noted that while stall recovery in a light aircraft, as one is learning to fly, is a basic, but it is rarely, if ever practiced by a big iron pilot. It is not even a part of most SIM programs. There is generally a 15-20kt spread in airspeed. Should it happen, the startle effect could just overwhelm a flight crew and because it was so rare, and just overwhelm a flight crew as to how to handle it.
bdjam
Brian James 1
It really doesn't matter what the result of the recent investigation says. If - as the author says - one or two hand flights during the climb out to 10,000 feet and during approach from 10,000 feet per month will validate an aviators skills, then how could it hurt to do so? I have no flying experience - except in the seats of an airplane - but I do have Information Technology experience. And I know that when the computer malfunctions or the software has a flaw, there's a definite negative outcome on the functionality. No one should trust computers 100 percent, including the folks who fly airplanes.
TorstenHoff
Torsten Hoff 0
It is unlikely that the crash is due to something as simple as loss of control -- the pilots would have been able to send out a distress call. More likely the plane disintegrated suddenly and without warning.
preacher1
preacher1 4
A large piece, if not the whole fuselage has apparently been found by sonar during the last 24hrs. If so, this would not indicate a major breakup but a direct fall from FL320. The remainder will be interesting. I can agree with the hand flying as I have been an advocate of that for years. Anytime an upset comes along, it is aviate and then communicate. If you can't aviate when the world is headed for hell all around you, you will probably wind up joining that trip.
linbb
linbb 1
The latest I read was there is something in the water visible that has the shape of the AC. Also one being found with a life jacket on says they knew what was up.
preacher1
preacher1 1
Well, in a few days it will all be known. In the meantime, we had just as well move on, as we don't have all that time to fill, like the news media.
linbb
linbb 1
They very well may have been doing there pilot thing that they are paid to do rather than talk on the radio to someone on the ground who has no way of doing anything about what you are dealing with.
preacher1
preacher1 1
I agree on the control thing but it is starting to appear that it came down basically intact. I think what ever happened was catastrophic and uncontrollable and fast. As there has been some body recovery, it appears there was a fuselage breach but they are either off on position or bulk of fuselage is intact, with bodies still inside. It will be interesting.
ColinSeftel
Colin Seftel 0
The author makes a valid point, whether or not this has any bearing on QZ8501. However, we know that there are far more accidents involving hand-flown light aircraft than commercial jets, so in spite of the risks associated with extensive use of autopilots, they seem to do a safer job.
preacher1
preacher1 2
I'd like to know your information source for this. It may very well be so but if it is, its probably because most GA AC are hand flown. Besides, Auto Pilot is not the only thing spoken of here. Use of all the automated systems needs to be addressed. You must remember that on big iron, that glass cockpits did away with 3rd man in the cockpit and put the workload on two, and that technology has been available and deployed since the early 80's.
ColinSeftel
Colin Seftel 1
For source data comparing GA to Commercial accident statistics, see http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm and scroll down to "Which type of flying is safer?" Their data has been extracted from NTSB reports 1998-2007.
Scheduled and non-scheduled airline flights: 4.03 fatalities per million hr.
General Aviation: 22.43 fatalities per million hr.
There are other sources with more recent data, but this is the easiest to access and the ratios are similar.
If you look at the trends in airline accidents, for example Boeing's Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Aircraft Accidents 1959-2013, (http://www.boeing.com/news/techissues/pdf/statsum.pdf) there is no indication that the change from 3 to 2 crew has had any detrimental effect, though to be fair this could be masked by other advances in safety - you could argue that with a crew of 3 we would have even fewer accidents.
joelwiley
joel wiley 1
Do you have statistics on accidents vs pilot experience hours?
ColinSeftel
Colin Seftel 1
No, I've never seen that. It would be interesting to see if there is a connection between pilot error incidents and the percentage of hand flown experience hours - does more hand flying make a pilot safer?
spudtu
spudtu 1
Not a pilot, but isn't it highly unlikely that many GA pilots are going to have anywhere near the flying hours of a commercial pilot? Sheer experience is greater in the commercial ranks. In every other field I know of, daily experience tends to make you better at what you do (with obvious exceptions for the reckless practioner).
Also, there are many more safety features in big planes, right? Duplicate (or triplicate) hydraulics, multiengine, better avionics, and of course 2 pilots...
preacher1
preacher1 1
You are correct, if for no other reason that most GA expense comes out of one's own pocket and a commercial pilot is flying on somebody else's nickel.
joelwiley
joel wiley 2
You might want to read "The Killing Zone, How and why pilots die" by Paul A. Craig
linbb
linbb 1
I assume you are not a pilot so to set it straight hand flying like the fellow below says is about the only way to fly many light AC. As far as crashes, very few involve loss of control under instrument conditions with light AC most involve many things other than that. Your speculation has very little if any merit.

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